Nigeria is one of the submitting countries listed on the 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report. The news roundup mentions Nigeria alongside major emitters like the US, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Canada, the UK, and Australia.

It was released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on October 28, 2025.

It synthesizes the updated climate action plans (NDCs) submitted by 64 countries between January 2024 and September 2025, covering about 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

A collective downward trend in the global emissions curve was highlighted in the report. For the first time, it is projecting a 17% reduction below 2019 levels by 2035 across the 64 countries. However, it warns that this is “not quickly enough” to meet IPCC benchmarks.

Specifically, global emissions from these nations are projected to peak before 2030. By 2035, they are expected to drop from 13.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) in 2030 to 13 billion tCO₂e.

This still falls far short of the 43% reduction needed by 2030 and 57-60% by 2035 to align with 1.5°C goals.

Nigeria-specific Projections and Challenges

For Nigeria, the report incorporates the recently enhanced NDC, the NDC 3.0, submitted in late 2024/early 2025. It had projected a decline in national emissions as part of its pathway to net-zero by 2060. However, the report emphasizes that implementation remains slow due to funding gaps, policy execution challenges, and reliance on fossil fuels.

Nigeria is highly vulnerable to climate impacts like flooding, desertification, and food insecurity. It accounts for about 0.5-1% of global GHG emissions.

Its oil and gas economy contributes to emissions from energy (58%), agriculture/forestry/land use (28%), and waste/industry (14%).

In its NDC 3.0, Nigeria commits to absolute emissions reductions for the first time. It is shifting from “business-as-usual” (BAU) baselines to fixed targets against 2018 levels, when emissions were around 480 MtCO₂e.

Under full NDC implementation, Nigeria’s emissions are projected to fall to 295.1 MtCO₂e by 2035, a 23% reduction from 2018 levels. This aligns with the report’s global trajectory of peaking before 2030 and declining thereafter.

Despite the projected decline, the UN report flags Nigeria’s trajectory as inadequate for 1.5°C compatibility without external support.