Nigeria is projected to lead as a global contributor to economic growth in 2026, according to new estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This marks a significant shift in the continent’s economic hierarchy and underscoring Nigeria’s renewed relevance in the global economy.

The IMF forecasts that Nigeria will account for about 1.5 per cent of global real GDP growth in 2026, placing it sixth among the world’s top ten contributors and making it the only African country on the list. This projected contribution puts Nigeria ahead of several advanced and emerging economies, including Germany, Brazil and Indonesia, and ahead of South Africa in Africa’s share of global growth.

In contrast, South Africa, long regarded as the continent’s most industrialized economy, is projected to grow at a modest 1.4 per cent in 2026. This limits its contribution to global expansion.

South Africa remains Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP. However, the IMF notes that its slower growth rate means it adds less to global output than Nigeria, whose economy is expected to expand by 4.4 per cent in the same period.

According to the IMF, Nigeria’s resurgence reflects the impact of recent policy adjustments, including exchange-rate reforms, the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to stabilise public finances. These measures, though politically and socially costly, are expected to support stronger domestic demand and improve Nigeria’s medium-term growth outlook.

Nigeria’s economy had underperformed in recent years due to currency instability, high inflation and policy uncertainty. This has weakened its contribution to global growth and allowed South Africa to retain its lead within Africa.

The 2026 projections, however, signal a reversal of that trend, with Nigeria regaining momentum as reforms begin to reshape its macroeconomic framework.

Globally, China is expected to remain the largest contributor to economic growth in 2026, accounting for 26.6 per cent, followed by India at 17 per cent and the United States at 9.9 per cent.

Together, China and India are projected to drive more than 43 per cent of global growth, highlighting the growing dominance of emerging economies. The Asia-Pacific region alone is forecast to account for nearly half of worldwide economic expansion.

Despite the positive outlook, the IMF cautions that Nigeria’s projected rise does not amount to a blanket endorsement of domestic economic conditions.

Inflation, exchange-rate stability, real wages, employment and purchasing power remain under pressure, and the Fund stresses that its forecasts are conditional and subject to revision.