Nigeria’s renewed ambition to re-enter the global cocoa market is colliding with a rapidly shifting international landscape. This raises fresh questions about timing, strategy and long-term competitiveness.

Global cocoa prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, with futures in New York sliding below US$4,000 per metric ton for the first time since 2023.

The downturn marks a dramatic reversal from the record highs seen in late 2024, when poor harvests in West Africa sent prices soaring. An industry-wide supply shock was triggered due to this.

The slump is being driven largely by weakening demand. Prolonged high prices over the past two years have dampened consumption, forcing chocolate makers to cut back production, reformulate recipes and use cheaper substitutes.

Cocoa grindings in Europe, the world’s largest consuming region, fell to their lowest levels in more than a decade in the fourth quarter of 2025. Forecasts now point to a global surplus extending into the 2026–27 season.

This reversal has already strained traditional producers. In Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where governments fix farmgate prices, the sudden drop in international futures has created a mismatch with domestic pricing. It leaves exporters squeezed and cocoa stocks piling up in warehouses.

Authorities in the Ivory Coast have even moved to support financing for bean purchases to stabilize the sector.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria is positioning itself for a cocoa resurgence.

The Federal Government has reaffirmed plans to revive cocoa production as part of its broader economic diversification drive under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Agriculture and Food Security Minister, Senator Abubakar Kyari, has described cocoa as a pillar for job creation.

Historically one of the world’s top cocoa producers, Nigeria has struggled for decades with low yields, limited processing capacity and weak logistics. Recent policy moves suggest Abuja is now seeking to correct those structural gaps rather than chase short-term price cycles.

Unlike the current market downturn facing established exporters, Nigeria’s re-entry strategy is being framed around long-term positioning. The government says it is prioritizing sustainable production, regulatory compliance and value-chain development. It plans to leverage frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to deepen regional trade and boost competitiveness.

A central element of this strategy is alignment with emerging global standards, particularly the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which will impose strict traceability and deforestation-free requirements on cocoa entering the EU market.

Nigeria has committed to compliance through its Climate Change Act, the creation of a National Task Force on EUDR compliance and the development of a National Cocoa Development Plan.